How I Make Most Decisions, on Vibes and Data

TL;DR: For most decisions, I do two things. I check whether the direction feels right, and then I look at the numbers. That settles the vast majority of what I decide. Regret minimization is only for the few decisions those two checks can’t settle.

What a vibe check is

A vibe check is my first filter. Before I open a spreadsheet, I ask myself whether the direction feels right. I’m an INFJ, and sensing a decision first is just how my mind works.

Underneath it is something I believe: life is meant to be easy. I don’t mean the work is easy, because the work is often hard. I mean that moving toward what you’re meant to do should feel like things are cooperating. When I hit a lot of friction right at the start, I take that as a cue to reconsider.

It also saves me time, since I don’t run the numbers on options that already feel wrong.

The data check

The data check is the reality test for a vibe. I don’t build a big model. I look up the few numbers that matter, which are usually price, time and what I’d be giving up, and see whether they back up the feeling.

In my examples below, the numbers did a few different jobs. For the Disney cruise, they showed the value was there, since Aulani would have cost us twice as much for not as many days. For the Taiwan trip, they validated the vibe: flights and experiences valued at roughly $30,000 for $11,646 out of pocket. For my first apartment, the check was whether I could afford it on my own salary and bank account, and I kept my finances super conservative.

Sometimes the numbers aren’t dollars at all. When we chose an elementary school, my limits were a morning commute under 15 minutes and what was realistic both financially and logistically.

If the vibe and the numbers disagree, I ask which one is better informed and go with that one. If neither settles it, that’s when I use regret minimization.

Examples

Most of my decisions don’t need regret minimization at all. The vibe check and a look at the data are enough, and I don’t spend long on anything easy to undo.

Planning a family vacation: when the numbers settled it

For our spring break trip in April, I originally wanted to go to Aulani in Honolulu. The prices were ridiculous, much higher than other times of the year. I could have pushed through and paid up, but that failed the vibe check for me.

Then I saw an ad (yes, an ad, which is part of why I don’t mind them) for the Disney Adventure, a new Disney cruise departing from Singapore that was supposed to start in March. That felt like the right direction, so I checked the numbers. I looked up flights and priced out the cruise, and it was super affordable. After points, our all-in cost was $5,827, including Singapore Airlines flights, a Westin hotel, food and activities for 5 days, and a 4-night Disney cruise in an interior Verandah room.

Aulani would have cost us twice as much for not as many days, so the value just wasn’t there.

I never needed regret minimization here. The vibe check and the numbers settled it, which is how most of my decisions go.

Choosing an elementary school: when the vibes told me I was wrong

Choosing an elementary school for my first born felt like a tough decision at the time. We loved her bilingual Montessori preschool and were really bummed to have to leave it. We weren’t particularly impressed with our zoned elementary school, and we wanted to keep her exposure to Mandarin. A private Mandarin immersion school wasn’t realistic, both financially and logistically, since I wanted to keep our morning commute under 15 minutes.

So we chose a public school with a dual language Mandarin program. It was the only program in our district that taught Traditional Chinese characters, which are used in Hong Kong and Taiwan (Simplified characters are used in China and Singapore). Getting in was competitive and we were lucky with our lottery number. The whole process took over a year, and we were relieved when we thought everything was settled.

Then, over the summer, the school decided to switch from Traditional to Simplified, which was one of the main reasons we wanted it. There were closer Simplified dual language programs, but it was too late to apply.

Within the first few days of kindergarten, I realized I’d made the wrong decision. The vibes were not right. I was trying to force it too much, and it seemed like the world was telling me that learning Mandarin through a public school dual language program wasn’t meant to be.

I had a backup school in mind, because I always try to have a plan B, C and D, and we were able to get a spot to transfer in. Once I decided to pivot to plan B, everything fell into place very quickly, and that’s how I knew I was on the right track. She was assigned to a class with a teacher she loved from the very first day. Our after-school program transferred right over. Our commute made a lot more sense, because the new school is a few blocks from my younger daughter’s Montessori preschool. We haven’t looked back, and it just feels right.

Planning a Taiwan trip: when the numbers confirmed the vibe

In August 2025, I planned a summer trip to Taiwan and Hong Kong. August is usually an expensive month to travel to Asia, because a lot of third culture families do. I knew this was the trip I was meant to take because I found really great deals on ANA business class flights to Taiwan. That included The Room on ANA’s business class from JFK to Haneda (HND), and then a connection from HND to Taipei Songshan (TSA) where we got to experience “regular” business class.

The flights and experiences were valued at roughly $30,000 for a family of four. I paid $11,646 out of pocket, or $2,912 per person, which is comparable to economy prices for a family of four. That was the data that validated my decision. The trip was super fun, and it’s one of those experiences I’m proud to have engineered for my family.

Booking flights to Cancun: when the math was the whole decision

Our family is going to Cancun in February, and I booked the flights on Delta using miles from a card my husband used to have. We had 84,250 miles, but the flights cost 91,500, so we were 7,250 miles short.

I had two options. I could book three tickets with miles and pay about $450 in cash for the fourth. Or I could move my husband’s current Delta Amex Blue back up to a Gold, which has a $150 annual fee and takes 15% off flights booked with miles on delta.com.

This was a decision the numbers settled on their own. With the discount, the trip dropped to about 77,775 miles, which left us 6,475 miles to spare. Taxes were higher on the four-ticket booking ($555, versus $416.91 for three tickets), so I added up everything I’d actually pay out of pocket. Booking three tickets on miles and buying the fourth would have cost $866.91 ($416.91 in taxes plus the $450 ticket). Booking all four on miles with the upgrade cost $705 ($555 in taxes plus the $150 annual fee). That’s $161.91 less, and one booking instead of two. With the cash option, I’d have had two separate bookings to follow up on and link later.

Buying my first apartment: vibes plus a quick finance check

Even though I’m very frugal and don’t like spending money on little things that add up, I seem to have no problem making big purchases. It sounds like it should be backwards, but it’s easier for me to make a $10,000 decision than a $100 one.

In the early 2010s, I’d been working for a few years and wanted to move out of the house I grew up in. My boyfriend (now husband) came with me to an open house for a redevelopment project in Astoria, Queens, and I fell in love with the apartments instantly. By the time we left, I knew I was going to put in an offer on my first apartment. The vibes were just right. I could also afford it on my own salary and bank account, so I went through the purchase with a super conservative mindset on finances.

In hindsight, we made some mistakes. We didn’t buy a bigger place that we could have afforded, and we wasted our first-time homebuyer status. But I don’t regret the decision, because I understand why I made it at the time. A few years later, we sold around when Amazon was supposed to be investing in nearby Long Island City, and we almost doubled our investment. Not bad for a decision that was mostly made on vibes and a quick finance check.

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Run it yourself

You can run this on your own decisions in about five minutes. Here are the steps I follow.

1. Name the decision, and how costly and reversible it is. If it’s cheap or easy to undo, don’t spend long on it.
2. Do the vibe check first. Before you look at any numbers, write down which option feels right in one or two sentences. Notice where you feel friction and where things feel easy.
3. Pick the two or three numbers that matter and look them up. Price, time, and what you’d give up are usually enough. Write down any assumptions you’re making.
4. Compare the two. If the vibe and the numbers agree, you’re done. If they don’t, ask which one is better informed and go with that one.
5. If neither settles it, use regret minimization. I cover that in my regret minimization post.

You can also have an AI walk you through it. Here’s a prompt you can copy:

I'm making a decision and I want you to walk me through a vibe check and then a data check.

First, ask me what the decision is and how costly and reversible it is. Then ask me to describe, in one or two sentences, which option feels right and why, before we look at any numbers.

Next, ask me which two or three numbers matter most, help me look them up or estimate them, and tell me which assumptions you're making. Then tell me whether the numbers and the vibe agree. If they don't, help me work out which one is better informed. If neither settles it, say so and suggest I use regret minimization instead.

At the end, turn this method into a reusable skill I can save, with the steps above, so I can run it on any decision in the future.

Where it falls short

A vibe and a quick look at the numbers is a simple method, and it has limits.

A vibe check can mislead. Hard and wrong can feel the same in the moment, even though they aren’t the same. That’s why it starts my process instead of ending it.

Numbers only count what you can measure. A spreadsheet only counts what you can put a number on, and the cost of not doing something rarely shows up in one.

Your assumptions matter. The numbers are only as good as what you assume going in, so I write my assumptions down.

For the decisions these two checks can’t settle, here’s how I use regret minimization.

FAQ